THE MYSTERIES OF OCTOBER 7As Hamas releases hostages and Israel continues to bomb Gaza, many questions remain unanswered
A decade ago, while on a trip to the Middle East, my wife and I were sharing a pizza dinner in a Jerusalem hotel with an American journalist and a photographer who had just returned from a reporting visit to Gaza City. An anchorman for one of America’s television networks and his wife joined us. The journalist and photographer chatted at some point in Arabic with our waiter and that chatter prompted a middle-aged gentleman in a suit and tie who was dining alone to approach our table and ask if he could join. He explained that he was a US Army intelligence officer, a colonel, assigned to the American consulate in Jerusalem and his mission was to report on Gaza. The only problem, he said, was that he was not allowed to actually travel to Gaza and so when he overheard the journalists talking about their visit there, he wanted to know more. We invited him to join, and the colonel got what was in effect a briefing on the deprivation and despair that the reporters had found. Gaza and Hamas—the Islamist group that has led the territory since 2007—remain murky, confounding subjects today. Why did Hamas stage an early morning raid on October 7 in what turned out to be a series of unguarded kibbutzim in Israel south? Why were only a few Israelis Israeli soldiers on duty that morning? We in the media do not know the full story. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is saying nothing about Israel’s failure to defend its citizens, although a number of leading generals have publicly apologized for their lapse, and Hamas has insisted that the mission it authorized was solely aimed at the capture of a few Israeli soldiers to be used for a possible prisoner exchange. Hamas operatives began the operation early on the morning of October 7 by blowing up the unguarded fences separating Gaza from Israel. Hamas also has claimed that the bulk of the mayhem was caused by other terrorist groups and the aggrieved citizens of Gaza who flooded across the downed gates and fences, with no Israeli soldiers to stop them. It has been widely reported that Israel, at the instigation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was financing Hamas, via funds supplied by Qatar, in the belief that a strong Hamas would make a two-state solution, long sought by some in Washington, unlikely. That is where we are today. Israel is now in the process of turning Gaza City into rubble, via constant bombing, and is also planning to begin a ground invasion in the near future. A well informed American official told me that the Israeli leadership is known to be considering flooding Hamas's vast tunnel system before sending in its troops, many of whom have had only a few weeks of training in the maneuvers and coordination required for the invasion. Such an act could mean that Israel was prepared to write off the hostages still in jeopardy. Where the estimated two hundred-plus hostages are is an open question. Israel is only talking about the end of the Hamas regime, and Hamas has so far released four hostages. Two elderly Israelis were released yesterday, with no known demands. The release was the second in three days. The first involved two Americans, a mother and her teenage daughter, who appeared to be in good health. All four were given over to the International Committee of the Red Cross. The American official told me that the Israel leadership expects more to come soon. The releases could be a sign that the Hamas leadership is feeling pressure because of the incessant bombing, which is widely assumed to be a precursor to an all-out Israel ground attack. They could also be a sign that Hamas is not going to let the Israeli bombing dictate its hostage policy. There have been secret talks about a larger release of Israeli prisoners since the first United Nations relief trucks began flowing from Egypt into southern Gaza, where up to a million hungry and thirsty refugees were waiting. The complete aid shipment should have been delivered directly to the Red Cross representatives who are already in Gaza City, the American official told me, “but the Egyptian UN officials wanted a cut and so did Hamas.” The official said that after much back and forth late last week a deal was worked out. The distribution of the goods would be left in the hands of Red Cross officials in Gaza City, and Hamas would forward its share, the official said, to its fighters “in the tunnels and their families. The rest would go to cronies”—that is, to senior members of the Hamas leadership. In return, Hamas would release ten more hostages when the actual transfer of goods took place. It is not known whether the hostages to be released were to include any Americans. The American official who outlined the bargaining involved did not know why the agreement fell apart. But he was dismissive of the greed involved. “The Egyptians and Palestinian factions were fighting for the relief goods,” he told me, “while the needy living without clean water and food will continue to suffer.” “We know,” the American official told me, “that the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade participated.” He was referring to a coalition of Palestinian armed groups that have been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, Israel, the European Union, and a number of other nations worldwide. (Hamas has also been designated a terrorist group by the US and the EU.) “Was the attack a surprise to the Hamas civilian leadership? No. It was long in the planning and coordinated. The other crazies with a history of terrorism were enlisted to join forces. Did they expect success? No. Did the attacking force commit egregious atrocities? Yes. Was it unanticipated by Hamas? No. All involved proclaimed their intention and proved it in their tactics over the past twenty years. Will Israel react and destroy Hamas? Yes. Are they justified? Was the creation of a Jewish state justified? One person’s answer to the second question answers the first.” He went on: “Will the refugees die of starvation? No. Public sympathy for their genuine suffering will save the day.” I heard a similar account of how the long-planned October 7 attack got out of control from a long-standing expert on Middle Eastern politics who has no access to American intelligence assessments. “The goal of the Palestinian operation,” he told me, “was exactly what happened—a shocking and inspired military operation that humiliated the Israelis and shook them to their foundation. Hamas military commanders had a map of bases [inside Israel] and wanted to take computer servers with all of the potentially compromising information they contained and would probably have sent them to Iran for analysis.” Another Hamas goal, I was told, was to take Israeli Army prisoners and force Israel to trade for the release of thousands of Gazan and West Bank prisoners, break the siege of Gaza, and continue to compete with the Palestine Liberation Organization that was initially designated by the 1993 Oslo Accords to control the West Bank and Gaza. “A further bonus of a successful attack,” the expert said, “would have been to stifle the ongoing normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel.” The Qassam wing of Hamas initiated the attack by launching rockets to distract the Israeli military and then disarmed the electronic system that provided round-the-clock surveillance of the fence around Gaza. The Hamas fighters who poured through the destroyed fence were soon followed by local residents of Gaza City who, in their ongoing anger at Israel, were eager to join in on the assault, as were members of other resistance groups in the Gaza Strip. The expert said he was told that attacking the all-night dance party—260 young Israelis were slaughtered that morning—was not part of the initial plan, but no one is denying that, planned or not, the murders at the dance party and in the Israeli settlements ultimately are the responsibility of Hamas. From the Hamas point of view, the expert added, “no matter what the Israelis do” in response to the slaughter triggered by Hamas—attack in force with ground troops or continue the saturation bombing of Gaza City—the October 7 raid was one from which the Israeli Defense Force cannot recover. The expert told me that “Israel calling in the US to make threats and send carriers and make threats only makes Israel look weaker.” The expert added that the Hamas leadership understands that Israel may have to invade Gaza on the ground in the immediate future, and declare victory no matter how many casualties are incurred, if only to reassure its traumatized population. The expert said that the critical issue for the Israeli military today, in the view of the Hamas leadership, is that a planned Hamas commando raid aimed at seizing IDF soldiers “turned into a prison break.” News of the unchallenged penetration of the initial Hamas attackers quickly spread throughout Gaza, and spontaneous groups of Gazans and hastily formed martyr hit teams poured through the downed fence. The result, said the expert, turned “the operation into a catastrophic success.” More than 200 hostages were carted off—one can see their abduction in various videos that have emerged—on the backs of a motorcycle or a bicycle or jammed into autos, and now are believed to be scattered in underground tunnels or in private homes throughout Gaza. Their fate may never be known. There are scores of videos providing evidence of what clearly was a fly-by-night attack that succeeded because of a stunning Israeli Defense Force failure that thus far has not led to the punishment of a single Israeli army officer. That possibility—that the initially limited Hamas goal turned into the horror that took place essentially because of the IDF failure—has yet to be acknowledged by Israel’s military and political leadership. They believe, as the expert said, that Hamas and other factions broke out of Gaza into Israel with specific orders to kill and abduct as many civilians and soldiers as possible. On October 11, Tal Heinrich, the spokesman for Netanyahu, added to the furor by telling CNN that the IDF found Israeli infants and toddlers with their “heads decapitated,” presumably while going house to house searching for survivors. Netanhayu was reported to have conveyed such to President Biden during one of their meetings this month. Hamas immediately denied the subsequent reports, which briefly dominated the news in America. A spokesman for the Israeli government announced a day later that it could not confirm that Hamas attackers cut off the heads of babies. Whatever the truth, the Israeli public is rattled as never before with questions about the ability of the Israeli government to protect its citizenry. In return, they are subjected to braying and bellicosity by their prime minister who, unlike his senior generals and the head of Shin Bet, the Israeli internal security agency, has refused so far to publicly take responsibility for the military and intelligence failures on October 7. A recent public opinion poll in Israel showed that Netanyahu has the support of 29 percent of his country. Invite your friends and earn rewardsIf you enjoy Seymour Hersh, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. © 2023 Seymour Hersh |